2026 college football · Week 3

Week 3 spread recommendations.

The game forecast finds 39 sides worth a closer look at the recorded spreads. One more game has enough model separation but is on hold for a quarterback question.

Forecast frozen Sep 18, 2026, 11:48 AM EDT ET · Market lines captured Sep 18, 2026, 11:48 AM EDT ET · Conditions checked September 17, 2026

39recommendations
1condition holds
57games with lines

September 18–19

The 39 recommendations

Ordered by kickoff, then model difference from consensus. Prices, availability and forecasts can move before kickoff.

01

Thu, Sep 17, 7:30 PM EDT

Syracuse at Pittsburgh

Syracuse +11
Bovada spread+11
Projected spread+8.89
Gap at that book+2.11 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

02

Fri, Sep 18, 7:30 PM EDT

Miami at Wake Forest

Miami −20
Bovada spread−20
Projected spread−23.71
Gap at that book+3.71 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

03

Fri, Sep 18, 8:00 PM EDT

Houston at Texas Tech

Houston +8
Bovada spread+8
Projected spread+5.45
Gap at that book+2.55 pts

Houston has topped 225 rushing yards in each of its first two games. Texas Tech is also 2–0, but our projected margin makes the Red Raiders a smaller favorite than the Friday night line.

Houston game preview
04

Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 AM EDT

Coastal Carolina at Delaware

Coastal Carolina +5.5
DraftKings spread+5.5
Projected spread+2.38
Gap at that book+3.12 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

05

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

Georgia at Arkansas

Arkansas +24.5
DraftKings spread+24.5
Projected spread+17.5
Gap at that book+7.00 pts

Georgia opens SEC play at 2–0. Arkansas is 1–1 after a heavy loss at Utah; the forecast still keeps the Razorbacks inside this large home spread.

Georgia game preview
06

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

Buffalo at Penn State

Penn State −40.5
DraftKings spread−40.5
Projected spread−46.01
Gap at that book+5.51 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

07

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

Akron at Minnesota

Akron +23.5
DraftKings spread+23.5
Projected spread+19.29
Gap at that book+4.21 pts

Akron and Minnesota are both 1–1. The forecast makes Minnesota a smaller home favorite than the listed line, putting Akron on the spread side.

AvailabilityMinnesota running back Darius Taylor is listed questionable; confirm his status before kickoff.

Matchup and injuries
08

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

North Carolina at Clemson

Clemson −3
DraftKings spread−3
Projected spread−7.14
Gap at that book+4.14 pts

North Carolina comes in 2–0 after holding TCU to 10 points. Clemson is 1–1. The projected margin gives the Tar Heels more room than the available spread.

WeatherClemson's forecast includes a chance of afternoon thunderstorms; check the timing again near the noon kickoff.

Clemson game preview NWS Clemson forecast
09

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

Kent State at Ohio State

Ohio State −52.5
DraftKings spread−52.5
Projected spread−56.21
Gap at that book+3.71 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

10

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

North Texas at Texas State

North Texas +2.5
DraftKings spread+2.5
Projected spread−0.43
Gap at that book+2.93 pts

North Texas rebounded from its Indiana loss by beating UNLV 44–6. Texas State is 0–2; the forecast favors North Texas by more than the current spread.

WeatherA hot noon kickoff in San Marcos makes heat a game-day check for both teams.

North Texas game preview NWS San Marcos forecast
11

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

Tulane at Kansas State

Kansas State −20.5
DraftKings spread−20.5
Projected spread−22.47
Gap at that book+1.97 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

12

Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM EDT

Bowling Green at Iowa State

Iowa State −23.5
DraftKings spread−23.5
Projected spread−25.15
Gap at that book+1.65 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

13

Sat, Sep 19, 12:30 PM EDT

Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin

Wisconsin −23.5
DraftKings spread−23.5
Projected spread−29.68
Gap at that book+6.18 pts

Wisconsin is 1–1 after a 36–9 win over Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 1–2. The projected home margin clears the Wisconsin spread at the named book.

Wisconsin game preview
14

Sat, Sep 19, 12:45 PM EDT

NC State at Vanderbilt

NC State +3
DraftKings spread+3
Projected spread+1.5
Gap at that book+1.50 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

15

Sat, Sep 19, 3:00 PM EDT

Temple at Toledo

Temple +6
DraftKings spread+6
Projected spread+2.78
Gap at that book+3.22 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

16

Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM EDT

Miami (OH) at Cincinnati

Cincinnati −15.5
DraftKings spread−15.5
Projected spread−22.5
Gap at that book+7.00 pts

The 129th Miami–Cincinnati meeting moves to TQL Stadium. Cincinnati is 2–0 and Miami is 1–1; the forecast makes the Bearcats a larger favorite than the available line.

Miami game preview
17

Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM EDT

UTEP at Michigan

Michigan −34.5
DraftKings spread−34.5
Projected spread−38.69
Gap at that book+4.19 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

18

Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM EDT

Utah State at Utah

Utah −27.5
DraftKings spread−27.5
Projected spread−30.84
Gap at that book+3.34 pts

Utah is 2–0 and returns home after a 43–10 win over Arkansas. The projected margin gives the Utes more room against Utah State than the market spread does.

Utah game preview
19

Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM EDT

USC at Rutgers

Rutgers +22
Bovada spread+22
Projected spread+19.73
Gap at that book+2.27 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

20

Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM EDT

SMU at Louisville

SMU +1.5
DraftKings spread+1.5
Projected spread−0.45
Gap at that book+1.95 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

21

Sat, Sep 19, 4:15 PM EDT

Mississippi State at South Carolina

Mississippi State +4
DraftKings spread+4
Projected spread+1.83
Gap at that book+2.17 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

22

Sat, Sep 19, 6:00 PM EDT

East Carolina at Old Dominion

East Carolina +3
DraftKings spread+3
Projected spread+0.24
Gap at that book+2.76 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

23

Sat, Sep 19, 6:30 PM EDT

Marshall at Missouri State

Marshall −4
DraftKings spread−4
Projected spread−7.04
Gap at that book+3.04 pts

Both teams are 1–1. Missouri State won last year's meeting by a point, while the current forecast gives Marshall enough margin to cover this road line.

Missouri State game preview
24

Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM EDT

Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State

Georgia Southern +3.5
DraftKings spread+3.5
Projected spread−0.67
Gap at that book+4.17 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

25

Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM EDT

Ohio at South Alabama

South Alabama −6.5
Bovada spread−6.5
Projected spread−10.01
Gap at that book+3.51 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

26

Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM EDT

Western Michigan at Rice

Rice +9.5
DraftKings spread+9.5
Projected spread+6.59
Gap at that book+2.91 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

27

Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM EDT

Troy at Missouri

Missouri −27
Bovada spread−27
Projected spread−29.84
Gap at that book+2.84 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

28

Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM EDT

Florida at Auburn

Florida −2
Bovada spread−2
Projected spread−4.75
Gap at that book+2.75 pts

Florida opens SEC play at Auburn. The forecast moves farther toward the Gators than the current market does, creating the spread difference on Florida.

AvailabilityFlorida receiver Eric Singleton Jr. is questionable on the SEC availability report; check the final designation.

Florida game and availability preview
29

Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM EDT

West Virginia at Virginia

Virginia −10.5
DraftKings spread−10.5
Projected spread−15.49
Gap at that book+4.99 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

30

Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Michigan State at Notre Dame

Michigan State +30
Bovada spread+30
Projected spread+25.68
Gap at that book+4.32 pts

Michigan State is 2–0 and rushed for 258 yards against Eastern Michigan. Notre Dame is also 2–0; our projected margin makes the Irish a smaller favorite than the line.

Michigan State game preview
31

Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Colorado at Northwestern

Colorado +3.5
DraftKings spread+3.5
Projected spread+1.58
Gap at that book+1.92 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

32

Sat, Sep 19, 7:45 PM EDT

Kennesaw State at Tennessee

Tennessee −35.5
DraftKings spread−35.5
Projected spread−39.12
Gap at that book+3.62 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

33

Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

UTSA at Texas

Texas −30
Bovada spread−30
Projected spread−35.22
Gap at that book+5.22 pts

Texas is 2–0 and hosts a UTSA team that opened 2–0 for the first time since 2021. The forecast makes Texas a larger favorite than this long spread.

AvailabilityTexas guard Trevor Goosby is listed questionable; recheck the offensive line near kickoff.

UTSA game preview Matchup injury listing
34

Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

UAB at Louisiana

Louisiana −7.5
DraftKings spread−7.5
Projected spread−10.62
Gap at that book+3.12 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

35

Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

Arkansas State at TCU

TCU −18.5
DraftKings spread−18.5
Projected spread−20.35
Gap at that book+1.85 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

36

Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM EDT

North Dakota State at Sacramento State

Sacramento State +27.5
DraftKings spread+27.5
Projected spread+20
Gap at that book+7.50 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

37

Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM EDT

Northern Illinois at Arizona

Arizona −33.5
DraftKings spread−33.5
Projected spread−40.41
Gap at that book+6.91 pts

Arizona remains a sizable home favorite, and the forecast makes that margin larger than the current line against Northern Illinois.

AvailabilityArizona receiver G. Richardson is listed out; receiver S. Brennan and running back C. Warren III are questionable.

WeatherTucson heat remains a consideration even with an evening kickoff.

Matchup injury listing NWS Tucson forecast
38

Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM EDT

Fresno State at San José State

San José State +6.5
DraftKings spread+6.5
Projected spread+3.32
Gap at that book+3.18 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

39

Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM EDT

Purdue at UCLA

UCLA −14
DraftKings spread−14
Projected spread−16.81
Gap at that book+2.81 pts

The model differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points.

How to read the card

The model needs room against the line.

The forecast starts with the current market and weighs team strength, completed games, quarterback and roster context, coaching, travel and home field. This card takes its side only when the projected margin differs from consensus by at least 1.5 points and a named book offers a positive spread gap.

The listed line is a dated spread reference, with the better of the available Bovada and DraftKings numbers for that side. Spread odds were not captured, so this page does not claim a calculated return. Injuries and game-day weather are not point adjustments in the projected margin. Material unresolved conditions are shown as holds below.

This exact Week 3 filter has no historical betting record. Historical margin and winner figures for the earlier ratings model do not validate this filter. The current power ratings now cover Week 4. Earlier ATS cards remain dated records in the Week 1 archive and Week 2 board.

Condition watch

One model side is on hold.

This gap clears the numerical buffer, but the projected margin has no current adjustment for the issue shown. It is outside the recommendation count.

Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM EDT

LSU at Ole Miss

Model side: LSU −3

LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt was upgraded from doubtful to questionable Thursday. His availability and effectiveness remain unresolved, and the projected margin has no injury adjustment. The LSU side stays on hold.

Read the condition source ↗

The rest of the slate

17 passes

A game projection is available for every matchup. These games do not clear this card's price buffer.

See every pass
  • Florida State at AlabamaModel–market gap 1.03 pts
  • New Mexico at OklahomaModel–market gap 0.94 pts
  • Kentucky at Texas A&MModel–market gap 0.27 pts
  • BYU at Colorado StateModel–market gap 0.99 pts
  • Georgia State at UCFModel–market gap 1.26 pts
  • Arizona State at KansasModel–market gap 1.02 pts
  • Stanford at DukeModel–market gap 1.21 pts
  • Virginia Tech at MarylandModel–market gap 0.20 pts
  • Western Kentucky at IndianaModel–market gap 1.06 pts
  • James Madison at San Diego StateModel–market gap 1.40 pts
  • UConn at Southern MissModel–market gap 0.63 pts
  • Florida International at Florida AtlanticModel–market gap 0.82 pts
  • Nevada at Middle TennesseeModel–market gap 1.09 pts
  • Wyoming at Central MichiganModel–market gap 1.31 pts
  • Charlotte at App StateModel–market gap 0.97 pts
  • Ball State at LibertyModel–market gap 0.16 pts
  • Louisiana Tech at BaylorModel–market gap 1.45 pts