Week 1 / Against the spread
There are 31 bet recommendations for week 1. Read on for the evidence that supports those recommendations, including the historical evidence, model logic, and game-by-game reasoning.
Week 1 historical replay · 2017–2025
62.7%ATSThe Week 1 recommendation policy was replayed across 296 historical selections. It covered 62.7% of the 295 bets with a win or loss. That is encouraging—and it still includes 110 losses. No system is perfect.
Restricting that same development-era replay to final edges of at least 1.20 points—the current production worker's nested threshold—produces 154–88 (63.6%). Historical folds used their own thresholds, so this is a descriptive slice, not a clean forward expectation.
Season by season
Each season was tested using predictions built without that season's final scores. This is historical research, not an untouched live betting record; model development used this general era.
Model logic
Sports betting markets are hard to beat. Why do we think we can do it? We built a machine-learning model to predict the score of each game. The key inputs are the strength of each program from the previous season and changes in the quality of its roster and coaching staff, if there is one. It is hard to measure and quantify these effects, but the historical data says our model does it better than the market. When our prediction diverges enough from the market, that side has been worth betting more often than not.
We begin with how strong each team was last season. Game margins are adjusted for home field, opponent quality, the size of a mismatch, weather and turnover luck that is unlikely to repeat. The difference between the teams' power ratings drives most of the prediction.
Passing and rushing offense are matched against the opponent's passing and rushing defense. Expected pace and number of possessions make a smaller, but still meaningful, difference.
Wind, rain and other game-day conditions can change how efficiently teams play. Confirmed absences at high-value positions—especially quarterback—can also move the prediction.
Week 1 is harder to read when a team has a new staff. Because that uncertainty is real, the model requires a larger edge before recommending a side.
How to read the historical matches
Each recommendation includes the 30 closest prior Week 1 bets based on the spread, model edge, expected total, game setting and the mix of core, roster reasons and the tracked pace profile. The closest available games are not exact copies.
Treat the record as context—not the chance this bet will cover. In a 30-game sample, one result moves the win rate by 3.3 percentage points. These comparisons never change the recommendation, edge or ranking.
Current card
All times Eastern. Raw lines re-anchor to the current provider median every 15 minutes. Published snapshot: Sep 5, 2026, 12:34 PM EDT.
New Mexico State at Florida State
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Draft Kings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Dimers gives the Aggies a 51.6% cover chance at +30.5. That extra point matters: its 41-11 score projection would favor Florida State at the All-Takes −29.5.
Dimers · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Tony Sanchez named Furman transfer Trey Hedden the starter entering fall camp after he earned the staff's trust in spring. NMSU believes the former SoCon All-Freshman passer can end two years of unstable quarterback play.
Read KTSM · Jul. 23, 2026Mike Norvell named Daniels the starter after he beat Kevin Sperry through spring camp, letting FSU use August on chemistry instead of an open quarterback race. Freshman O'Neal will miss 2026 while rehabbing an ACL injury.
Read Florida State Seminoles on SI · Jul. 21, 202676.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Draft Kings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
No defensible public ATS view located as of Sep. 3.
Open either team for the brief.
Sacramento State begins its FBS and Mid-American Conference eras under first-year coach Alonzo Carter. The opener at Eastern Michigan is also the program's first football game in the state of Michigan.
Read Sacramento State Athletics · Aug. 24, 2026Eastern Michigan starts its 135th season one victory short of 500 in program history. The Eagles get the first look at new FBS and MAC member Sacramento State in a conference opener at The Factory.
Read Eastern Michigan Athletics · Aug. 24, 202676.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Ball State +5.33 at Illinois
+4.7Covered by 2.3Central Michigan +11.5 at San José State
+3.2Covered by 13.5Rutgers +9 at Boston College
+5.3Covered by 10.0App State +12.5 at Georgia
+3.4Missed by 8.5Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5Sam Houston +10.5 at Rice
+5.8Covered by 30.5West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh
+4.3Covered by 0.5Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5Bowling Green +17.17 at Michigan State
+3.8Missed by 7.8North Texas +6 at South Alabama
+5.1Covered by 20.0Cincinnati +14.25 at UCLA
+4.5Covered by 23.3Virginia Tech +7.12 at Florida State
+2.9Covered by 28.1California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1Florida International +10 at Louisiana Tech
+5.5Covered by 5.0San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Massachusetts
+1.9Covered by 16.5Middle Tennessee +3 at Vanderbilt
+1.8Missed by 25.0South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4Fresno State +19.20 at Oregon
+3.9Covered by 12.2Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.1Missed by 1.5LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5Boston College +16.5 at Florida State
+3.7Covered by 31.5Central Michigan +20.75 at Oklahoma State
+4.7Covered by 6.8Georgia State +24.88 at Tennessee
+3.8Covered by 32.9Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5Nevada +24 at Northwestern
+4.1Covered by 13.0Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5Georgia +2.60 vs. Clemson
+3.2Covered by 9.6North Carolina vs. TCU
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its efficiency model makes TCU nearly six points stronger than the −6.5 market number.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Bill Belichick and new coordinator Bobby Petrino have not named a starter between Billy Edwards Jr. and Miles O'Neill. The unresolved job sits at the center of an overhaul for an offense that finished among the nation's least productive in 2025.
Read The News & Observer · Jul. 18, 2026Ryan Hughes, last year's starter before a lower-body injury, is competing with spring riser Witten Van Hoy at left tackle. The winner must protect Harvard transfer Jaden Craig in a new Gordon Sammis offense that opens early in Ireland.
Read TCU Horned Frogs on SI · Jul. 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
LSU −14.67 vs. BYU
+4.4Covered by 12.3Kansas State −3.20 vs. Stanford
+4.2Covered by 13.8Tennessee −13.5 vs. Syracuse
+5.6Covered by 5.5Georgia −14 vs. Clemson
+6.3Covered by 17.0Colorado −12.62 vs. Colorado State
+4.1Covered by 8.4Florida −7 vs. Miami
+3.1Missed by 3.0Auburn −1.5 vs. Washington
+4.0Covered by 3.5Northwestern −4 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 3.0Georgia −16 vs. Oregon
+7.0Covered by 30.0Kansas State −3.5 vs. Iowa State
+5.2Missed by 6.5Alabama −7.33 vs. Florida State
+7.6Covered by 9.7South Carolina −8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
+2.4Covered by 4.5Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0Auburn −3.62 vs. Oregon
+1.0Covered by 2.4Wyoming −5 at New Mexico State
+3.2Covered by 17.0Virginia Tech −4.67 vs. West Virginia
+1.9Covered by 2.3Utah −2.5 at Florida
+3.9Missed by 5.5Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.9Covered by 16.8Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0LSU −4 vs. USC
+5.3Missed by 11.0James Madison −7.5 at Charlotte
+2.6Covered by 15.5Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5Ohio State −3 vs. Texas
+1.4Covered by 4.0Notre Dame −2.5 at Miami
+5.2Missed by 5.5West Virginia −2.5 at Maryland
+4.3Missed by 8.5Florida Atlantic −6 at Ohio
+2.8Missed by 9.0Utah −6.12 at BYU
+3.8Covered by 11.9Colorado −3 vs. Colorado State
+3.7Covered by 11.0Washington State −3.12 at Wyoming
+2.0Covered by 18.9TCU −3 at North Carolina
+3.2Covered by 31.0Jacksonville State at North Dakota State
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
No defensible public ATS view located as of Sep. 3.
Open either team for the brief.
Jacksonville State returns 50 contributors and 12 starters from a nine-win team that reached a second straight Conference USA title game and earned the program's second bowl victory in three seasons.
Read Jacksonville State Athletics · Aug. 29, 2026North Dakota State begins its first FBS season after closing a 22-year FCS era with ten national championships and a 251-49 record. Its opener against Jacksonville State tests that pedigree immediately.
Read North Dakota State Athletics · Aug. 26, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
East Carolina +9.20 at App State
+2.2Missed by 4.8Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0North Carolina +3 at App State
+2.9Covered by 5.0Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.1Missed by 1.5Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.1Covered by 9.5Troy +9.12 vs. Boise State
+1.3Missed by 26.9Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8Texas State +16.5 at Rutgers
+1.0Missed by 11.5Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh
+4.3Covered by 0.5Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3Jacksonville State +1.17 vs. UTEP
+5.9Covered by 4.2UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5Tulane +7.25 vs. Wake Forest
+1.2Covered by 1.3California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5Central Michigan +17.5 at Kentucky
+1.2Covered by 2.5Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5Boston College +16.5 at Florida State
+3.7Covered by 31.5Memphis at UNLV
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its 32-28 projection leaves Memphis inside the market's +5.5 and aligns with the All-Takes underdog.
Punt & Rally · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Charles Huff opened camp without naming a starter between Division II standout Marcus Stokes and former Ohio State quarterback Air Noland. The choice will determine how quickly a portal-heavy offense can function in Huff's first season.
Read The Daily Memphian · Jul. 30, 2026Dan Mullen has not handed the job to Auburn transfer Jackson Arnold; Michigan transfer Alex Orji remains in the competition. The winner replaces Anthony Colandrea in an offense expected to chase the Mountain West title immediately.
Read FOX5 Las Vegas · Jul. 17, 202655.2% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5Florida International +3 at Tulane
+1.4Missed by 25.0Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Massachusetts
+1.9Covered by 16.5Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.1Missed by 1.5Middle Tennessee +3 at Vanderbilt
+1.8Missed by 25.0Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5Texas A&M +6.33 at UCLA
+1.0Covered by 5.3California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0North Carolina +7 at California
+0.7PushNorth Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+0.9Covered by 4.5South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1Nevada +2.80 at California
+0.3Covered by 7.8Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5San José State at USC
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
No defensible public ATS view located as of Sep. 3.
Open either team for the brief.
San José State enters 2026 with 48 new players and only three projected starters who made at least six starts last season. Hawai'i transfer Luke Weaver takes over at quarterback for the rebuilt offense.
Read USC Athletics · Aug. 25, 2026Lincoln Riley calls this his deepest USC roster and had described the offensive line as his strongest before camp. With Gary Patterson taking over a young defense, local expectations have shifted from roster construction to winning consistently.
Read Los Angeles Times · Jul. 28, 202670.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.6Covered by 5.5Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+1.4Missed by 19.2Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Hawai'i at Stanford
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its line is well below the +5 available to Hawai'i and supports the All-Takes underdog.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Dimers instead backs Stanford at −3.5 and projects a six-point Cardinal win, a line-sensitive conflict with the All-Takes +5.
Dimers · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Preseason all-conference receiver Pofele Ashlock opened camp out with an undisclosed injury and no firm return date. Quarterback Micah Alejado says he feels better than 100%, but Hawai'i is replacing nearly 150 receiver catches while waiting for its top target.
Read Hawaii Sports Radio Network · Jul. 29, 2026Receivers Carter Shaw and Daylen Sharper and kicker London Bironas are out. Caden High and Nico Brown remain questionable, while guard Niki Prongos is expected to be available.
Read Covers · Sep. 2, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Massachusetts
+1.9Covered by 16.5Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.1Missed by 1.5Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5Middle Tennessee +3 at Vanderbilt
+1.8Missed by 25.0Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3North Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+0.9Covered by 4.5Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5Northern Illinois +3.5 vs. Boston College
+1.1Covered by 0.5App State +12.5 at Georgia
+3.4Missed by 8.5Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4Nevada +2.80 at California
+0.3Covered by 7.8Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh
+4.3Covered by 0.5Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5Central Michigan +11.5 at San José State
+3.2Covered by 13.5Florida International +3 at Tulane
+1.4Missed by 25.0NC State at Virginia
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The model sits within a point of the All-Takes −3 recommendation, offering confirmation rather than a large independent edge.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
NC State is building around CJ Bailey's continued growth while Dave Doeren formalizes a player leadership council of more than 20 members. The opener at Virginia is the first test of whether that continuity can produce a cleaner, more mature team.
Read WRAL · Jul. 16, 2026Tony Elliott elevated Missouri transfer Beau Pribula over Eli Holstein before camp, removing the largest offensive uncertainty. Several projected contributors opened camp limited by minor injuries, but Elliott did not expect extended absences.
Read Virginia Athletics · Jul. 30, 202666.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Ohio State −3 vs. Texas
+1.4Covered by 4.0Stanford −6.5 vs. Northwestern
+1.1Covered by 3.5Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.9Covered by 16.8Army −3.60 vs. Middle Tennessee
+1.4Covered by 38.4Arkansas −6.62 vs. Cincinnati
+1.5Covered by 0.4Massachusetts −2.5 vs. Hawai'i
+1.1Missed by 5.5Utah −6.5 at UCLA
+1.3Covered by 26.5BYU −1.20 at Navy
+0.9Covered by 50.8Indiana −0.75 vs. Illinois
+1.7Covered by 2.3Liberty −3.5 at Southern Miss
+1.7Missed by 1.5Northwestern −3.10 vs. Michigan State
+1.3Missed by 20.1Iowa −3.5 vs. Indiana
+1.0Covered by 24.5Wisconsin −5.5 vs. Penn State
+0.4Missed by 11.5Tulsa −6.5 at Wyoming
+0.9Missed by 9.5Wyoming −8.5 at Akron
+1.6Covered by 1.5Florida Atlantic −6 at Ohio
+2.8Missed by 9.0Washington State −3.12 at Wyoming
+2.0Covered by 18.9James Madison −7.5 at Charlotte
+2.6Covered by 15.5Michigan −2.88 at Notre Dame
+0.3Missed by 9.9Vanderbilt −2.67 at Middle Tennessee
+1.9Covered by 19.3Cincinnati −2.5 vs. UCLA
+2.0Covered by 7.5Auburn −1.5 at Baylor
+0.6Covered by 12.5Georgia Tech −4 at Colorado
+2.5Covered by 3.0Wyoming −5 at New Mexico State
+3.2Covered by 17.0Rutgers −14.20 vs. Temple
+1.5Covered by 32.8Rutgers −11.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 8.5TCU −3 at North Carolina
+3.2Covered by 31.0Vanderbilt −9.25 at Hawai'i
+2.1Covered by 43.8Kentucky −9.83 at Southern Miss
+0.6Missed by 2.8Miami (OH) −1.38 vs. Marshall
+2.3Missed by 8.4Akron at Wake Forest
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
No defensible public ATS view located as of Sep. 3.
Open either team for the brief.
Akron opens its 127th season at Wake Forest, marking the program's 40th year at the FBS level. Joe Moorhead's team must handle a Thursday-night road setting before its own home opener.
Read Akron Athletics · Sep. 2, 2026Wake Forest enters Jake Dickert's second season after the most successful first year by a head coach in program history. The Akron opener starts a demanding September that also includes Purdue and Miami.
Read Wake Forest Athletics · May 27, 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Arizona −13.5 vs. Hawai'i
+3.5Covered by 20.5Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5Indiana −20.5 vs. Florida International
+5.0Covered by 3.5Texas State −14 vs. Eastern Michigan
+4.8Covered by 11.0Texas A&M −21.5 vs. UTSA
+4.8Missed by 3.5Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Kentucky −31.10 vs. UL Monroe
+5.2Covered by 3.9Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 8.5Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0UAB at Illinois
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Draft Kings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its model is one point stronger than the −27.5 market line, modestly supporting the favorite.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Burton seized the job late in 2025 and validated it with 251 yards and three touchdowns in UAB's upset of No. 22 Memphis. Alex Mortensen's rebuild begins with a proven QB1 while the new staff replaces much of his receiving production.
Read UAB Athletics · Jul. 14, 2026Bret Bielema has positioned East Carolina transfer Katin Houser as Luke Altmyer's replacement and a team leader. His 26 career starts reduce the quarterback uncertainty while Illinois rebuilds much of the production around him.
Read Daily Herald · Jul. 29, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.0Missed by 17.5Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+1.4Missed by 19.2Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Colorado at Georgia Tech
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Dimers gives Colorado a 59.9% cover chance and projects Georgia Tech to win 28-23; the +7 All-Takes line still clears that margin.
Dimers · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Colorado's most important competition remains quarterback, where returning five-star Julian Lewis is trying to hold off Utah transfer Isaac Wilson. With roughly 50 newcomers and a revamped staff, naming a steady QB1 is essential before the road opener at Georgia Tech.
Read Axios Boulder · Apr. 10, 2026Brent Key said Mendoza would start if Georgia Tech played after spring, and the Indiana transfer remained the expected QB1 entering camp. His 25 career pass attempts make a proven run game with Justice Haynes and Malachi Hosley central to the transition.
Read Atlanta Journal-Constitution · Jul. 17, 202644.8% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8Florida International +3 at Tulane
+1.4Missed by 25.0Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5North Carolina +7 at California
+0.7PushNorth Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+0.9Covered by 4.5Nevada +2.80 at California
+0.3Covered by 7.8Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5Texas A&M +6.33 at UCLA
+1.0Covered by 5.3LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5Charlotte +14 at Eastern Michigan
+1.4Missed by 3.0Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5Coastal Carolina +12.5 at Virginia
+0.3Missed by 28.5Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0Central Michigan +13.80 at Missouri
+1.9Covered by 3.8Toledo +10.38 at Kentucky
+0.4Missed by 3.6Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0East Carolina +9.20 at App State
+2.2Missed by 4.8Fresno State at USC
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Draft Kings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its efficiency line is 1.3 points beyond the All-Takes −22.5 recommendation.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Matt Entz is splitting first-team reps between Maryland transfer Khristian Martin and Jayden Mandal, who missed most of 2025 with injury. He wants a decision at least ten days before the USC opener, with ball security the separating issue.
Read Fresno Bee · Jul. 21, 2026Lincoln Riley calls this his deepest USC roster and had described the offensive line as his strongest before camp. With Gary Patterson taking over a young defense, local expectations have shifted from roster construction to winning consistently.
Read Los Angeles Times · Jul. 28, 202660.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Arizona −13.5 vs. Hawai'i
+3.5Covered by 20.5Texas State −14 vs. Eastern Michigan
+4.8Covered by 11.0NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Rutgers −11.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 8.5Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 8.5Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0Michigan State −11.5 vs. Florida Atlantic
+2.6Missed by 5.5Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Baylor −13.60 at Texas State
+5.3Missed by 4.6Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Indiana −20.5 vs. Florida International
+5.0Covered by 3.5Texas A&M −21.5 vs. UTSA
+4.8Missed by 3.5Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4NC State −12.5 vs. East Carolina
+1.5Missed by 5.5Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0Miami at Stanford
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The model disagrees with All-Takes and makes Miami stronger than the −23.5 market spread.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Darian Mensah says limiting turnovers and protecting the football is his central fall-camp correction. Miami is counting on a veteran line to give the Duke transfer a clean platform while he builds timing with a reshaped receiver room.
Read Miami Herald · Jul. 21, 2026Receivers Carter Shaw and Daylen Sharper and kicker London Bironas are out. Caden High and Nico Brown remain questionable, while guard Niki Prongos is expected to be available.
Read Covers · Sep. 2, 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Rice +25.88 vs. Houston
+2.5Covered by 7.9Nevada +27 vs. SMU
+3.0Covered by 22.0Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5Louisville +19.25 vs. Notre Dame
+3.1Covered by 1.3New Mexico State +31.20 at San Diego State
+2.2Covered by 13.2Utah State +23.5 at Iowa
+4.4Covered by 13.5Kennesaw State +24 at UTSA
+2.2Covered by 12.0Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.1Covered by 9.5Rutgers +28 vs. Washington
+4.4Covered by 12.0Miami (OH) +24.25 at Iowa
+1.2Covered by 0.3Old Dominion +20 at South Carolina
+2.6Covered by 16.0Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1UConn +23.75 at Utah State
+2.9Covered by 12.8New Mexico State +21.5 at Minnesota
+1.5Missed by 16.5East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5Bowling Green +24 at UCLA
+2.3Missed by 4.0Western Michigan +24 at Wisconsin
+2.8Covered by 10.0Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.8Covered by 11.1Wyoming +16.88 vs. Missouri
+1.3Covered by 22.9Central Michigan +17.5 at Kentucky
+1.2Covered by 2.5West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0Texas State +16.5 at Rutgers
+1.0Missed by 11.5Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3Georgia Southern +27.12 at LSU
+2.1Missed by 24.9Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+3.0Missed by 9.0Kent State +24.5 at Arizona State
+2.8Covered by 1.5Colorado +20.5 at TCU
+3.9Covered by 23.5Utah State +23.5 at Michigan State
+2.6Covered by 16.5Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5UTEP at Oklahoma
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Draft Kings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The published Week 1 handicap lays the large number with Oklahoma, close to the All-Takes −40.5 price.
Predictem · Aug. 2026Its model also puts the Sooners beyond the All-Takes recommendation.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
UTEP enters its first Mountain West season with nine Phil Steele preseason all-conference selections, led by first-team returner Kam Thomas. That returning core makes a league reset more credible than the Miners' recent record suggests.
Read UTEP Athletics · Jun. 10, 2026Jake Maikkula and Ryan Fodje are expected to sit against UTEP, leaving Caleb Nitta to start at center. The injuries are not considered long term, but the late reshuffle adds risk for a team laying more than 40 points.
Read Sooners Wire · Sep. 2, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.6Covered by 5.5Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.0Missed by 17.5Nebraska −27.5 vs. UTEP
+3.1Covered by 5.5Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+1.4Missed by 19.2Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1Ball State at Ohio State
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its model is materially higher than both the listed market and the All-Takes −49.5 recommendation.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Mike Uremovich says his second Ball State roster is deeper and more competitive. The stated goal is no longer vague progress; it is staying relevant in the MAC race long enough to play meaningful games in November.
Read Ball State Athletics · Jul. 22, 2026Ohio State brought 51 new players into camp, and Josh Padilla is among the linemen fighting for a starting role. That competition matters immediately because Julian Sayin and Arthur Smith's new run game face Texas in Week 2.
Read Bill Rabinowitz · Aug. 4, 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.6Covered by 5.5Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4Texas A&M −38 vs. New Mexico
+7.2Covered by 4.0Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3Kentucky −31.10 vs. UL Monroe
+5.2Covered by 3.9Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+1.4Missed by 19.2North Texas at Indiana
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its number is 10.5 points below the market, strongly implying North Texas value at +41.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026The 28-point projected margin also keeps the Mean Green comfortably inside +41.
DRatings · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Neal Brown is choosing among veteran Tayven Jackson, East Carolina transfer Chaston Ditta and redshirt freshman Chris Jimerson Jr. Experience may favor Jackson because the winner's first assignment is a road opener at defending champion Indiana.
Read Dave Campbell's Texas Football · May 20, 2026Indiana carried multiple spring limitations after a 16-game title run, with the tight-end room hit hardest. Curt Cignetti says the roster is on the mend and expects players who begin camp limited to ramp up by the second week.
Read The Daily Hoosier · Jul. 30, 202670.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Akron +50.5 at Ohio State
+2.7Covered by 4.5New Mexico State +31.20 at San Diego State
+2.2Covered by 13.2UConn +23.75 at Utah State
+2.9Covered by 12.8New Mexico State +32.88 at Washington State
+1.5Missed by 18.1Florida Atlantic +27.62 at Ohio State
+3.5Covered by 3.6Georgia Southern +34.33 at Auburn
+1.8Covered by 0.3Colorado State +35.5 at Texas
+1.4Missed by 16.5San José State +30.5 at USC
+3.3Covered by 2.5Kent State +24.5 at Arizona State
+2.8Covered by 1.5Rutgers +28 vs. Washington
+4.4Covered by 12.0Coastal Carolina +30.75 at South Carolina
+2.4Missed by 3.3South Alabama +35.5 at Nebraska
+1.3Covered by 21.5Bowling Green +24 at UCLA
+2.3Missed by 4.0Nevada +27 vs. SMU
+3.0Covered by 22.0Colorado +20.5 at TCU
+3.9Covered by 23.5Western Michigan +24 at Wisconsin
+2.8Covered by 10.0Rice +25.88 vs. Houston
+2.5Covered by 7.9Rice +31.17 vs. Stanford
+5.0Missed by 23.8Akron +29.83 at Penn State
+2.5Missed by 22.2Kennesaw State +24 at UTSA
+2.2Covered by 12.0Georgia Southern +27.12 at LSU
+2.1Missed by 24.9Colorado State +31 at Michigan
+4.9Missed by 13.0Utah State +23.5 at Iowa
+4.4Covered by 13.5Massachusetts +20.38 at Boston College
+2.5Missed by 13.6Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.8Covered by 11.1Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.1Covered by 9.5Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5Nevada +24 at Northwestern
+4.1Covered by 13.0Miami (OH) +24.25 at Iowa
+1.2Covered by 0.3UNLV +24.62 at USC
+1.8Covered by 2.6Northern Illinois at Iowa
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Fair, 89°F, 6.3 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
FPI strongly favors Iowa outright; the article does not publish an ATS recommendation, so this is context only.
ESPN FPI via Iowa Hawkeyes on SI · Jun. 2026Open either team for the brief.
NIU enters the Iowa opener without a settled quarterback between Brady Davidson and Jalen Macon. The winner must add passing balance to an offense opponents crowded last year while Rob Harley resets the program for its Mountain West debut.
Read The Scarlet Standard · Jul. 21, 2026Iowa entered camp without a clear successor to Mark Gronowski, leaving Brown and Hecklinski to compete for the job. That decision is the hinge for an offense expected to support another veteran Hawkeyes defense.
Read Big Ten Conference · Jul. 30, 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Texas A&M −38 vs. New Mexico
+7.2Covered by 4.0Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Kentucky −31.10 vs. UL Monroe
+5.2Covered by 3.9Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Nebraska −27.5 vs. UTEP
+3.1Covered by 5.5Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5Indiana −20.5 vs. Florida International
+5.0Covered by 3.5Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4Boise State at Oregon
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Fair, 65°F, 3.1 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The 24-point projected margin leaves Boise State half a point inside the All-Takes +24.5 number.
Dimers · Aug. 2026This model lands on the other side of the recommendation, making Oregon more than a point stronger than −24.5.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Leading returning receiver Ben Ford says his injury rehab taught him patience and renewed his approach. His return gives Maddux Madsen a trusted target as Boise State opens its new Pac-12 era on the road at Oregon.
Read KBOI · Jul. 23, 2026The Oregonian's preseason assessment calls this the Ducks' best national-title opportunity since 2014. That makes an experienced roster's early execution—not merely beating Boise State—the local measuring stick.
Read The Oregonian / OregonLive · Jul. 20, 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5UConn +23.75 at Utah State
+2.9Covered by 12.8Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.8Covered by 11.1Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.1Covered by 9.5Bowling Green +24 at UCLA
+2.3Missed by 4.0Kennesaw State +24 at UTSA
+2.2Covered by 12.0New Mexico State +31.20 at San Diego State
+2.2Covered by 13.2Kent State +24.5 at Arizona State
+2.8Covered by 1.5Colorado +20.5 at TCU
+3.9Covered by 23.5Western Michigan +24 at Wisconsin
+2.8Covered by 10.0Army +13.88 at Duke
+4.6Missed by 6.1Utah State +23.5 at Iowa
+4.4Covered by 13.5Old Dominion +20 at South Carolina
+2.6Covered by 16.0Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+3.0Missed by 9.0Utah State +23.5 at Michigan State
+2.6Covered by 16.5Rutgers +28 vs. Washington
+4.4Covered by 12.0New Mexico State +21.5 at Minnesota
+1.5Missed by 16.5Georgia Southern +27.12 at LSU
+2.1Missed by 24.9Florida Atlantic +27.62 at Ohio State
+3.5Covered by 3.6Massachusetts +20.38 at Boston College
+2.5Missed by 13.6Miami (OH) +24.25 at Iowa
+1.2Covered by 0.3Rice +25.88 vs. Houston
+2.5Covered by 7.9Boston College +16.5 at Florida State
+3.7Covered by 31.5Nevada +27 vs. SMU
+3.0Covered by 22.0Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1Coastal Carolina +30.75 at South Carolina
+2.4Missed by 3.3Louisville +19.25 vs. Notre Dame
+3.1Covered by 1.3Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5Oklahoma State at Tulsa
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Clear, 100°F, 6.3 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Against an −11.5 market number, its model implies substantial Tulsa value rather than support for the All-Takes favorite.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Eric Morris inherits a 1-11 team and an almost entirely rebuilt roster. Local preseason coverage puts the first test on an unsettled offensive line that must protect Drew Mestemaker and translate North Texas' high-tempo system.
Read Stillwater News Press · Jul. 24, 2026Hayes took over after an early injury and kept the job, finishing 2025 with 2,158 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. That stability matters because Tulsa replaced its 1,000-yard rusher and its leading receiver before the Oklahoma State rematch.
Read Underdog Dynasty · Jul. 16, 202656.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Boise State −12 at Georgia Southern
+4.7Missed by 1.0Baylor −13.60 at Texas State
+5.3Missed by 4.6Texas State −14 vs. Eastern Michigan
+4.8Covered by 11.0Mississippi State −11.5 at Southern Miss
+2.2Covered by 5.5Arizona −13.5 vs. Hawai'i
+3.5Covered by 20.5TCU −8.5 at Stanford
+4.5Missed by 1.5Texas A&M −21.5 vs. UTSA
+4.8Missed by 3.5Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9LSU −1.90 at UCLA
+4.1Missed by 12.9Indiana −20.5 vs. Florida International
+5.0Covered by 3.5Ohio −2.10 vs. Syracuse
+3.8Missed by 22.1Marshall −3.20 at Navy
+4.5Covered by 38.8Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0Virginia Tech −6 at Old Dominion
+6.3Missed by 9.0Arizona State −6.5 vs. Wyoming
+5.2Covered by 34.5Miami −2.5 at Florida
+2.8Covered by 21.5James Madison −4.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+5.4Covered by 32.5NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Utah −6.12 at BYU
+3.8Covered by 11.9Rutgers −11.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 8.5Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5BYU −11.62 at South Florida
+1.1Covered by 17.4Michigan State −11.5 vs. Florida Atlantic
+2.6Missed by 5.5NC State −12.5 vs. East Carolina
+1.5Missed by 5.5Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 8.5Georgia Tech −4 at Colorado
+2.5Covered by 3.0Colorado State −3.5 vs. Oregon State
+3.9Covered by 27.5West Virginia −2.5 at Maryland
+4.3Missed by 8.5Cincinnati −2.5 vs. UCLA
+2.0Covered by 7.5Missouri State at Texas A&M
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Rain, 84°F, 11.6 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The published handicap leans to the huge underdog, opposite the All-Takes favorite at the same number.
Wise Guy Team · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Casey Woods has not named a starter between UTEP transfer Skyler Locklear and Duke transfer Henry Belin. The winner will open at Texas A&M behind an offensive line with only one returning starter, making protection as important as the quarterback choice.
Read Ozarks First · Apr. 29, 2026Mike Elko acknowledges the direction established in 2025 but keeps emphasizing that it produced no championship. Marcel Reed and a veteran defense therefore enter 2026 under an SEC-title standard, not a developmental one.
Read Texas A&M Athletics · Jul. 22, 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5Oklahoma −43.17 vs. UTEP
+3.4Covered by 5.8Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Penn State −45.5 vs. Nevada
+1.2Missed by 10.5Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9Alabama −39.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
+7.6Covered by 9.5Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Texas −35 vs. Rice
+6.9Missed by 8.0Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.6Covered by 5.5Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5Tennessee −36.25 vs. Ball State
+6.2Covered by 12.8Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3Auburn −37.30 vs. Akron
+5.0Covered by 12.7Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Tennessee −37.30 vs. Bowling Green
+6.2Missed by 5.3Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Kentucky −31.10 vs. UL Monroe
+5.2Covered by 3.9Arkansas State at Memphis
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Fair, 92°F, 6.9 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Dimers assigns the Red Wolves a 54.6% cover chance and projects Memphis to win 31-23.
Dimers · Aug. 2026This model crosses to the other side of +10.5, preserving a real outside disagreement on the game.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Local coverage sees this as Butch Jones' first roster deep enough to contend for the league, not merely reach a bowl. Camp is about settling roles around that depth, and anything short of entering November in the Sun Belt race would now disappoint.
Read Red Wolf Report · Jul. 2026Charles Huff opened camp without naming a starter between Division II standout Marcus Stokes and former Ohio State quarterback Air Noland. The choice will determine how quickly a portal-heavy offense can function in Huff's first season.
Read The Daily Memphian · Jul. 30, 202656.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Kent State +18.12 at Illinois
+3.8Covered by 11.1Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5Western Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5Jacksonville State +16.5 at UCF
+3.1Covered by 9.5Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5East Carolina +9.20 at App State
+2.2Missed by 4.8Bowling Green +17.17 at Michigan State
+3.8Missed by 7.8Central Michigan +13.80 at Missouri
+1.9Covered by 3.8Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh
+4.3Covered by 0.5Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.1Missed by 1.5Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5Memphis +17 at Mississippi State
+3.0Missed by 9.0Boston College +16.5 at Florida State
+3.7Covered by 31.5App State +12.5 at Georgia
+3.4Missed by 8.5Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0Oregon State at Houston
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Its current model line is just below the All-Takes −18.5, making this near-confirmation rather than an independent edge on Houston.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
After a 2-10 season, new coach JaMarcus Shephard inherited a portal overhaul that sent 35 players out and brought 21 in. With so little continuity, the opener is an immediate test of whether the new staff assembled a functional two-deep rather than just new talent.
Read The Daily Barometer · Jan. 21, 2026Houston is one of only 11 FBS teams returning its head coach, all three coordinators and starting quarterback. After a 10-3 season, that rare continuity—and a roster Fritz calls one of the nation's most experienced—makes a Big 12 title push reasonable rather than promotional.
Read Houston Chronicle · Jun. 18, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.0Missed by 17.5Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5Rutgers −14.20 vs. Temple
+1.5Covered by 32.8Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.9Covered by 16.8Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0Virginia Tech −13.5 at Vanderbilt
+1.7Missed by 20.5Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 8.5Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Rutgers −11.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 8.5Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Liberty at James Madison
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
No defensible public ATS view located as of Sep. 3.
Open either team for the brief.
Three Liberty quarterbacks started a game last season, while the running-back room includes three Doak Walker watch-list players. That depth gives the Flames several ways to challenge James Madison.
Read Liberty Athletics · Sep. 3, 2026James Madison follows its first Sun Belt championship and College Football Playoff appearance with Billy Napier taking over as head coach. The opener renews an in-state rivalry JMU won 31-13 last year.
Read James Madison Athletics · Sep. 1, 202660.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5California +3 at Oregon State
+2.5Covered by 22.0LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Massachusetts
+1.9Covered by 16.5Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.1Missed by 1.5Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5Middle Tennessee +3 at Vanderbilt
+1.8Missed by 25.0Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0West Virginia +7.5 at Pittsburgh
+4.3Covered by 0.5Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5North Carolina +3 at App State
+2.9Covered by 5.0Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4App State +12.5 at Georgia
+3.4Missed by 8.5East Carolina +9.20 at App State
+2.2Missed by 4.8North Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+0.9Covered by 4.5Nevada +2.80 at California
+0.3Covered by 7.8Rice +14.5 at Louisiana
+4.4Covered by 16.5UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5Northern Illinois +3.5 vs. Boston College
+1.1Covered by 0.5Clemson at LSU
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Rain Shower, 82°F, 3.6 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Powers disclosed an early personal wager on LSU at −8.5. The All-Takes recommendation is Clemson +10.5, two points through that entry.
Brad Powers · Spring 2026Pate described a large LSU win as much less surprising than a comfortable Clemson win and floated a 27-6 type result.
Josh Pate via The Clemson Insider · May 11, 2026Open either team for the brief.
Coordinator Chad Morris says Christopher Vizzina will open camp as Clemson's starter, while stressing that Tait Reynolds remains close after a strong spring. The distinction matters for a reset team facing LSU before the competition has much time to settle.
Read TigerNet · Jul. 14, 2026Sam Leavitt is expected to be full-go after a Lisfranc injury limited his spring. Husan Longstreet used those missed reps to pull ahead of Landen Clark for the backup job, while corner Aidan Anding will miss the season after a spring Achilles tear.
Read LSU Tigers on SI · Jul. 19, 202655.2% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Wyoming +12.17 at Iowa
+1.6Missed by 8.8Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5Arkansas State +14.5 at Nebraska
+2.5Covered by 7.5Georgia State +12.5 at South Carolina
+1.6Missed by 8.5Northwestern +6.5 at Tulane
+1.7Missed by 13.5San Diego State +13.75 at Stanford
+2.6Missed by 7.3Toledo +10 at Kentucky
+1.5Covered by 2.0California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5Massachusetts +16.67 at Rutgers
+2.3Missed by 10.3Fresno State +14.12 at USC
+2.9Covered by 6.1North Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+0.9Covered by 4.5Charlotte +14 at Eastern Michigan
+1.4Missed by 3.0Coastal Carolina +12.5 at Virginia
+0.3Missed by 28.5Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5Central Michigan +17.5 at Kentucky
+1.2Covered by 2.5Nevada +15.5 at Troy
+2.1Covered by 17.5North Carolina +7 at California
+0.7PushWestern Michigan +18.5 at Michigan State
+2.9Covered by 1.5West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0Central Michigan +13.80 at Missouri
+1.9Covered by 3.8LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3Nevada +2.80 at California
+0.3Covered by 7.8South Alabama +12.40 at Southern Miss
+3.0Covered by 23.4Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5Florida International +3 at Tulane
+1.4Missed by 25.0Ohio at Nebraska
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
DraftKings has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The model is 8.5 points below the All-Takes market spread and strongly favors Ohio at +23.5.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Local spring evaluation placed Nick Poulos as the likely opening-day quarterback while leaving room for Davis to compete. John Hauser is retooling after losing three long-tenured stars, so settling that job is the first step in preserving Ohio's recent MAC standard.
Read The Post · May 2026Matt Rhule publicly rejected another 7-6 finish as an acceptable destination and named the playoff as Nebraska's target. That raises the immediate burden on transfer quarterback Anthony Colandrea and a remade offense to turn improved expectations into wins.
Read WOWT · Jul. 31, 202666.7% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.0Missed by 17.5Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5Rutgers −14.20 vs. Temple
+1.5Covered by 32.8Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.9Covered by 16.8Virginia Tech −13.5 at Vanderbilt
+1.7Missed by 20.5Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 8.5Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Western Michigan at Michigan
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Cloudy, 74°F, 9.2 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The preview expects Michigan to win comfortably but lands short of the current market margin. It is a score projection, not a separately labeled wager.
Michigan Wolverines on SI · Jul. 27, 2026Open either team for the brief.
Western Michigan brings back dual-threat quarterback Broc Lowry and 1,000-yard running back Jalen Buckley from a team that won ten of its final eleven games and the MAC title. The defensive staff changed, but the Broncos retain the backfield that drove their turnaround.
Read Michigan Wolverines on SI · Jul. 27, 2026Kyle Whittingham's first Michigan team opens with an experienced quarterback in Bryce Underwood but a new staff and new routines. The immediate priorities are simple: protect the football, establish the run, defend it well and avoid giving Western Michigan a special-teams opening.
Read ClickOnDetroit · Aug. 22, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.0Missed by 17.5Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0Wisconsin −17.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.0Missed by 0.5Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
CFBD has not yet published a current forecast for this game, so weather contributes zero points until the next full board refresh.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
The simulation makes West Virginia the clear straight-up winner, but its 17-point projected margin stays inside the current market spread. This is not an ATS wager.
Dimers · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Coastal Carolina starts over under first-year coach Ryan Beard after a 6-7 season. The Chanticleers were picked fifth in the Sun Belt East, but three preseason all-conference defenders give the new staff a veteran base for a difficult opener at West Virginia.
Read Sun Belt Conference · Aug. 20, 2026West Virginia paired Rich Rodriguez and line coach Rick Trickett with Jacksonville State transfer Cam Cook, who led the FBS with 1,659 rushing yards in 2025. Cook's familiarity with the system gives the Mountaineers a ready-made offensive identity for the opener.
Read West Virginia Athletics · Aug. 17, 202660.0% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Kansas −14 vs. Fresno State
+2.3Covered by 10.0Maryland −20.5 vs. UConn
+1.4Covered by 22.5Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Kentucky −15.5 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 8.5Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.0Missed by 17.5NC State −12.5 vs. East Carolina
+1.5Missed by 5.5Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4Mississippi State −20.90 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.9Missed by 19.9Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Rutgers −11.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 8.5Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1Minnesota −16.5 vs. Buffalo
+2.4Missed by 3.5Rutgers −14.20 vs. Temple
+1.5Covered by 32.8Arizona −13.5 vs. Hawai'i
+3.5Covered by 20.5Virginia Tech −13.5 at Vanderbilt
+1.7Missed by 20.5Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0Arkansas −19.60 vs. Rice
+2.8Covered by 1.4Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Michigan State −11.5 vs. Florida Atlantic
+2.6Missed by 5.5Texas State at Texas
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Fair, 95°F, 4.6 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
No defensible public ATS view located as of Sep. 3.
Open either team for the brief.
Texas State brings back all-conference selections Chris Dawn Jr., Beau Sparks, Jaylen Jenkins and Brad Jackson. That experienced core gives the Bobcats something tangible to carry into the Austin opener.
Read Texas State Athletics · Mar. 25, 2026Arch Manning returns after producing three games with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes without an interception in 2025. Texas gets one tune-up before hosting Ohio State.
Read Texas Athletics · Aug. 24, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Wake Forest −32.5 vs. Old Dominion
+1.0Missed by 0.5Oklahoma −31.25 vs. Tulane
+2.0Missed by 26.3Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Wisconsin −27.33 vs. Utah State
+0.9Covered by 21.7Pittsburgh −23.5 vs. Kent State
+1.2Covered by 7.5Washington −23.62 vs. Kent State
+2.3Covered by 1.4Memphis −27.17 vs. UL Monroe
+1.4Missed by 19.2Kentucky −25.5 vs. Southern Miss
+1.1Covered by 5.5Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Ole Miss −38.5 vs. Georgia State
+3.1Covered by 17.5Penn State −24.5 vs. App State
+1.0Missed by 17.5Texas A&M −29.5 vs. Kent State
+3.9Covered by 1.5Michigan −35.62 vs. Middle Tennessee
+2.4Missed by 16.6Pittsburgh −37.60 vs. Massachusetts
+0.2Covered by 6.4Maryland −24 vs. Buffalo
+3.6Missed by 3.0Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Arizona State −24.67 vs. New Mexico State
+0.2Missed by 18.7Missouri −20.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+2.8Covered by 7.6Washington −20.5 vs. Colorado State
+0.9Missed by 3.5Ohio State −40 vs. Oregon State
+3.3Covered by 6.0Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Alabama −42.12 vs. Utah State
+1.8Covered by 12.9Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Clemson −38.17 vs. Kent State
+3.8Covered by 14.8Oklahoma −42.5 vs. Temple
+0.6Covered by 5.5NC State −19.70 vs. South Florida
+2.7Covered by 25.3Michigan State −23.12 vs. Tulsa
+1.4Missed by 2.1Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Cloudy, 75°F, 6.0 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Powers disclosed an early personal wager on Notre Dame at −16.5; the current All-Takes price is four points worse.
Brad Powers · Spring 2026Its efficiency model makes the Irish roughly 1.5 points stronger than the published −20.5 market line.
Blue Chip Analytics · Aug. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Wisconsin has installed Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph after he produced 3,631 total yards and 34 touchdowns in 2025. After three disappointing seasons, the local pressure is whether a proven dual-threat quarterback can finally produce an offensive step forward.
Read BadgerNotes · Jul. 2026Notre Dame will open against Wisconsin without receiver Quincy Porter, one of eight Irish players ruled out. Linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa remains questionable as he works back from a left knee injury.
Read Notre Dame Fighting Irish on SI · Sep. 1, 202683.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Georgia −14 vs. Clemson
+6.3Covered by 17.0Georgia −16 vs. Oregon
+7.0Covered by 30.0Tennessee −13.5 vs. Syracuse
+5.6Covered by 5.5LSU −14.67 vs. BYU
+4.4Covered by 12.3Tennessee −28 vs. Virginia
+6.0Covered by 8.0Alabama −23.75 vs. Louisville
+4.8Covered by 13.3Colorado −12.62 vs. Colorado State
+4.1Covered by 8.4Alabama −33.75 vs. Duke
+5.6Covered by 5.3Georgia Tech −20.5 vs. Georgia State
+7.5Covered by 2.5Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0Alabama −7.33 vs. Florida State
+7.6Covered by 9.7Texas A&M −33.25 vs. Texas State
+7.0Covered by 0.8Kansas State −3.20 vs. Stanford
+4.2Covered by 13.8Texas −19.38 vs. Louisiana Tech
+3.3Covered by 11.6Minnesota −36 vs. New Mexico State
+5.1Covered by 2.0Florida −7 vs. Miami
+3.1Missed by 3.0Purdue −16.5 vs. Ball State
+4.5Covered by 14.5Michigan State −21.75 vs. Western Michigan
+3.3Covered by 0.3Illinois −14 vs. Wyoming
+2.9Covered by 18.0Alabama −13.5 at Florida State
+3.0Missed by 27.5Auburn −35 vs. Massachusetts
+3.6Covered by 10.0Alabama −31 vs. Western Kentucky
+3.9Covered by 32.0Auburn −1.5 vs. Washington
+4.0Covered by 3.5Army −23 vs. Rice
+1.7Missed by 16.0Kansas State −3.5 vs. Iowa State
+5.2Missed by 6.5Northwestern −4 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 3.0South Carolina −8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
+2.4Covered by 4.5Fresno State −27.70 vs. UConn
+4.4Covered by 17.3Cincinnati −22.30 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.2Covered by 12.7Syracuse −17.5 vs. Ohio
+2.9Missed by 1.5Louisville vs. Ole Miss
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Fair, 87°F, 9.8 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
No defensible public ATS view located as of Sep. 3.
Open either team for the brief.
No. 24 Louisville opens against No. 9 Ole Miss after a 9-4 season. The neutral-site matchup in Nashville is the Cardinals' immediate chance to show they belong in the national conversation.
Read The Louisville Cardinal · Sep. 1, 2026Pete Golding begins his first full season as Ole Miss head coach with a neutral-site game against No. 24 Louisville. The No. 9 Rebels enter Nashville carrying playoff expectations from the opening snap.
Read Ole Miss Athletics · Aug. 31, 202673.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
Auburn −3.62 vs. Oregon
+1.0Covered by 2.4South Carolina −8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
+2.4Covered by 4.5Virginia Tech −4.67 vs. West Virginia
+1.9Covered by 2.3Kansas State −3.20 vs. Stanford
+4.2Covered by 13.8Florida −7 vs. Miami
+3.1Missed by 3.0Colorado −12.62 vs. Colorado State
+4.1Covered by 8.4Auburn −1.5 vs. Washington
+4.0Covered by 3.5Northwestern −4 vs. Miami (OH)
+2.5Covered by 3.0Colorado −3 vs. Colorado State
+3.7Covered by 11.0LSU −14.67 vs. BYU
+4.4Covered by 12.3Indiana −17.88 vs. Ball State
+1.5Missed by 7.9Massachusetts −2.5 vs. Hawai'i
+1.1Missed by 5.5Notre Dame −20 vs. Navy
+3.3Covered by 19.0Ohio State −3 vs. Texas
+1.4Covered by 4.0Iowa −9.25 vs. Northern Illinois
+1.9Covered by 16.8Army −3.60 vs. Middle Tennessee
+1.4Covered by 38.4Stanford −6.5 vs. Northwestern
+1.1Covered by 3.5Tennessee −13.5 vs. Syracuse
+5.6Covered by 5.5Arkansas −6.62 vs. Cincinnati
+1.5Covered by 0.4Vanderbilt −2.67 at Middle Tennessee
+1.9Covered by 19.3LSU −4 vs. USC
+5.3Missed by 11.0Utah −6.5 at UCLA
+1.3Covered by 26.5James Madison −7.5 at Charlotte
+2.6Covered by 15.5NC State −12.5 vs. East Carolina
+1.5Missed by 5.5Wyoming −8.5 at Akron
+1.6Covered by 1.5Ole Miss −8.90 vs. Louisville
+1.0Covered by 10.1Kentucky −9.83 at Southern Miss
+0.6Missed by 2.8Florida Atlantic −6 at Ohio
+2.8Missed by 9.0Colorado State −3.5 vs. Oregon State
+3.9Covered by 27.5Ohio State −17 vs. Notre Dame
+1.5Missed by 6.0SMU at Florida State
Hover, focus or tap a factor to read the full model reason.
Team strength and matchup evidence that survives the production model's market cross-check.
An independently estimated roster-change signal is used only when it agrees with the core edge.
Opponent-adjusted offensive-line quality and actual transfer production are added only when they reinforce the current model side.
Opponent-adjusted clock, drive, efficiency and play-style forecasts make a small pace adjustment in projected non-blowouts. Pace cannot choose a side by itself.
The current CFBD forecast (Heavy Rain Shower, 79°F, 4.6 mph wind) is applied to each team's expected passing and rushing plays. The relative scoring effect changes both the prediction and recommendation edge.
Bovada has the most favorable current spread for the model side. This execution improvement is separate from the football model.
A verified QB absence can change the forecast. High-usage RB/WR absences are used only to avoid a conflicting bet, not assigned an unsupported point value.
Published lines stay attached to their source.
Dimers gives the Seminoles a 54.2% cover chance while projecting a 26-26 game.
Dimers · Aug. 2026Its preseason opponent series calls for an SMU win in Tallahassee; no ATS number accompanies the call.
Dave Campbell's Texas Football · Jul. 2026Open either team for the brief.
Kevin Jennings gives SMU unusual continuity at quarterback, but opposing coaches continue to identify last year's pass defense as the weakness. A new coordinator and remade secondary have to improve quickly before the Mustangs visit Florida State.
Read Dave Campbell's Texas Football · Jul. 24, 2026Mike Norvell named Daniels the starter after he beat Kevin Sperry through spring camp, letting FSU use August on chemistry instead of an open quarterback race. Freshman O'Neal will miss 2026 while rehabbing an ACL injury.
Read Florida State Seminoles on SI · Jul. 21, 202663.3% of decided matches covered. Useful context, not a predicted probability.
Ordered from most to least similar. “Closest” means the best available matches in the historical pool; it does not mean the games are identical.
North Texas +6.5 vs. California
+2.1Missed by 30.5West Virginia +10 vs. Penn State
+2.9Missed by 12.0East Carolina +12.5 vs. NC State
+2.8Covered by 11.5Army +1.5 at Coastal Carolina
+3.2Missed by 8.5UTEP +3.5 at Utah State
+3.5Missed by 8.5Northern Illinois +8.5 at Boston College
+3.0Covered by 11.5SMU +1.75 at Arkansas State
+4.0Covered by 8.8Arizona +6.25 at San Diego State
+4.1Covered by 24.3Temple +9.5 at Duke
+2.4Missed by 20.5Nevada +2 vs. Texas State
+6.9Covered by 26.0LSU +3.5 at Clemson
+2.3Covered by 10.5Northern Illinois +3.5 vs. Boston College
+1.1Covered by 0.5Army +2.5 at Georgia State
+4.0Covered by 35.5Tulane +7.25 vs. Wake Forest
+1.2Covered by 1.3Northwestern +1 at Purdue
+2.6Covered by 5.0Coastal Carolina +3.5 at Jacksonville State
+1.5Covered by 31.5Florida Atlantic +8.67 vs. Navy
+2.3Missed by 14.3Florida International +3 at Tulane
+1.4Missed by 25.0Boise State +1.62 at Oregon State
+1.1Missed by 15.4Nevada +11 vs. Purdue
+1.1Covered by 14.0Stanford +1.5 at Hawai'i
+4.1Missed by 1.5Jacksonville State +1.17 vs. UTEP
+5.9Covered by 4.2California +12.5 at North Carolina
+2.7Covered by 17.5South Florida +10.5 vs. Wisconsin
+1.0Missed by 38.5Troy +10.5 at Boise State
+1.9Missed by 0.5Marshall +3.67 vs. Miami (OH)
+0.2Covered by 8.7Florida State +4.5 vs. LSU
+3.3Covered by 5.5Eastern Michigan +2.5 at Massachusetts
+1.9Covered by 16.5North Carolina +2.5 at Minnesota
+0.9Covered by 4.5LSU +3.12 vs. Miami
+5.1Covered by 19.1Before kickoff
Lines, forecasts, quarterbacks and skill-player availability will move. The production card should be rebuilt with the latest verified inputs; these recommendations are a dated model snapshot, not guarantees.
See the team ratings behind the card