Week 4 / Game totals

Week 4 totals
recommendations.

The current card has 39 plays across the 58 FBS games that currently have both a spread and total. The model reads each scoring matchup in context, using team form, opponent strength, expected pace, game conditions and the market.

39recommendations
27unders
12overs
58lined games

The model

A full-game scoring forecast.

The projection weighs how both teams create and prevent points, then accounts for likely game flow, venue, weather and the betting market. It estimates the final combined score and passes when the available edge is too small.

In the expanded 2017–2025 replay, average error falls from 12.81 to 12.78 points across 6,439 games, with improvement in 8 of nine seasons. That is a modest improvement in accuracy. The model learns from 2015–2025 games; this season’s completed games update team form.

Recommendations use three fixed layers. The point model acts first. On its passes, the probability and point directions must disagree before the arbitration can add a play. A probability that clears the −110 gate wins that disagreement; otherwise the point side needs at least a 0.1-point edge. The over policy then fills its cumulative 17.5% quota from the strongest remaining over edges.

Sequential replay · 2021–2025

How these selection rules performed.

Each historical season was forecast from earlier seasons. The figures below use the same model and all three selection layers on this card, risking one unit per bet at −110. They are historical research after model development, not a live betting record.

Core model+111.8 units

860–670–5 · 1,535 selections · 7.3% ROI

Arbitration additions+67.4 units

436–329–3 · 768 selections where core passed

Over additions+25.3 units

140–102–4 · 246 selections where production passed

All three layers+204.5 units

1436–1101–12 · 2,549 selections · 8.0% ROI

Season-by-season results and the earlier-data comparison

The promoted policy includes core picks, disagreement-arbitration additions, and the frozen over-additions quota. Results use historical consensus totals; the displayed books on today’s card are a separate price snapshot. Pushes return the stake.

All three selection layers, 2021–2025
SeasonSelectionsW–L–PUnits
2021510299–211–0+60.8
2022534295–234–5+34.2
2023471262–208–1+30.2
2024479279–199–1+54.6
2025555301–249–5+24.6

Both total models were also trained on the same expanded history for the comparison below. The 2015–2016 training rows use market spreads where saved spread-model forecasts are unavailable. Point forecasts improve in each 2017–2020 season; early betting returns are mixed.

Average error in total points, 2017–2025; lower is better
SeasonGamesPrevious model, retrainedUpdated model
201773513.77313.756
201873312.89712.881
201973413.08012.949
202050813.77513.749
202173212.39412.377
202273411.88611.891
202375012.77412.763
202475112.68512.651
202576212.31412.309

The current card

39 recommendations across 58 games.

Core modelArbitrated addOver addition
01
Sat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM EDT

Central Michigan at Miami

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaOver 53.5
Core edge vs. consensus+1.6 pts
Final-total model
55.6
Consensus total
54.0
Model edge
+1.6
Regulation model
55.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 55.5%
Expected possessions
11.24
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 79°F, 8.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Central Michigan and Miami moved the forecast +0.7 points.

Books 53.5–54.5
02
Sat, Sep 26, 12:45 PM EDT

South Alabama at Kentucky

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 54.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.3 pts
Final-total model
53.2
Consensus total
54.5
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
52.1
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 53.6%
Expected possessions
11.30
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 66°F, 4.5 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for South Alabama and Kentucky moved the forecast −0.1 points.

Books 54.5–54.5
03
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 47.5
Core edge vs. consensus−4.2 pts
Final-total model
43.3
Consensus total
47.5
Model edge
−4.2
Regulation model
43.1
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 61.0%
Expected possessions
11.43
Weather adjustment
−3.5

Forecast applied. Rain, 58°F, 23.0 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −3.5 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Virginia Tech and Boston College moved the forecast +0.0 points.

Books 47.5–47.5
04
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

Colorado State at UTSA

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 58.5
Core edge vs. consensus−2.7 pts
Final-total model
55.8
Consensus total
58.5
Model edge
−2.7
Regulation model
55.7
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 57.1%
Expected possessions
11.69
Weather adjustment
0.0

Indoor — no weather adjustment. The game is indoors, so outside conditions contribute zero points. Current-season scoring evidence for Colorado State and UTSA moved the forecast −0.3 points.

Books 58.5–58.5
05
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM EDT

App State at NC State

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.0 pts
Final-total model
54.2
Consensus total
55.3
Model edge
−1.0
Regulation model
53.3
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 53.4%
Expected possessions
11.48
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 67°F, 1.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for App State and NC State moved the forecast +0.5 points.

Books 55.0–55.5
06
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM EDT

South Carolina at Alabama

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 54.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.1 pts
Final-total model
52.7
Consensus total
53.8
Model edge
−1.1
Regulation model
51.8
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 53.5%
Expected possessions
11.46
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 82°F, 4.5 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for South Carolina and Alabama moved the forecast −0.5 points.

Books 53.5–54.0
07
Sat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM EDT

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsOver 43.5
Core edge vs. consensus+1.7 pts
Final-total model
45.4
Consensus total
43.8
Model edge
+1.7
Regulation model
44.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 55.0%
Expected possessions
11.47
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 69°F, 7.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Hawai'i and Wyoming moved the forecast +0.3 points.

Books 43.5–44.0
08
Fri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM EDT

Navy at UAB

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 51.5
Core edge vs. consensus−2.6 pts
Final-total model
48.7
Consensus total
51.3
Model edge
−2.6
Regulation model
48.8
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 57.4%
Expected possessions
11.01
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 78°F, 4.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Navy and UAB moved the forecast +0.4 points.

Books 51.0–51.5
09
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM EDT

Ole Miss at Florida

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 59.5
Core edge vs. consensus−2.0 pts
Final-total model
57.2
Consensus total
59.3
Model edge
−2.0
Regulation model
56.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 56.1%
Expected possessions
11.33
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 84°F, 7.0 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Ole Miss and Florida moved the forecast −0.7 points.

Books 59.0–59.5
10
Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM EDT

Notre Dame at Purdue

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 58.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.5 pts
Final-total model
56.7
Consensus total
58.3
Model edge
−1.5
Regulation model
57.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 54.8%
Expected possessions
11.41
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 69°F, 5.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Notre Dame and Purdue moved the forecast −1.0 points.

Books 58.0–58.5
11
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

Illinois at Ohio State

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 54.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.3 pts
Final-total model
52.4
Consensus total
53.8
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
53.7
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 54.3%
Expected possessions
10.76
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 64°F, 6.3 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Illinois and Ohio State moved the forecast +0.2 points.

Books 53.5–54.0
12
Fri, Sep 25, 4:00 PM EDT

Army at Temple

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 48.5
Core edge vs. consensus−2.2 pts
Final-total model
46.0
Consensus total
48.3
Model edge
−2.2
Regulation model
46.1
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 56.6%
Expected possessions
10.42
Weather adjustment
−1.4

Forecast applied. Overcast, 70°F, 17.3 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −1.4 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Army and Temple moved the forecast −0.3 points.

Books 48.0–48.5
13
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM EDT

Oregon at USC

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 62.5
Core edge vs. consensus−2.4 pts
Final-total model
59.8
Consensus total
62.3
Model edge
−2.4
Regulation model
59.5
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 57.0%
Expected possessions
10.95
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 89°F, 7.4 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Oregon and USC moved the forecast −0.4 points.

Books 62.0–62.5
14
Sat, Sep 26, 1:30 PM EDT

UCLA at Maryland

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 57.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.5 pts
Final-total model
55.3
Consensus total
56.8
Model edge
−1.5
Regulation model
54.6
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 54.6%
Expected possessions
11.12
Weather adjustment
−0.4

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 73°F, 11.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −0.4 points. Current-season scoring evidence for UCLA and Maryland moved the forecast −1.0 points.

Books 56.5–57.0
15
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

Wake Forest at Louisville

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 57.0
Core edge vs. consensus−2.1 pts
Final-total model
54.7
Consensus total
56.8
Model edge
−2.1
Regulation model
55.8
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 56.3%
Expected possessions
11.84
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 71°F, 5.8 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Wake Forest and Louisville moved the forecast −0.7 points.

Books 56.5–57.0
16
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM EDT

Nebraska at Michigan State

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsOver 48.5
Core edge vs. consensus+1.1 pts
Final-total model
49.9
Consensus total
48.8
Model edge
+1.1
Regulation model
49.3
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 53.6%
Expected possessions
11.23
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 69°F, 5.3 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Nebraska and Michigan State moved the forecast +0.3 points.

Books 48.5–49.0
17
Fri, Sep 25, 10:30 PM EDT

Clemson at California

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsOver 50.5
Core edge vs. consensus+1.4 pts
Final-total model
52.2
Consensus total
50.8
Model edge
+1.4
Regulation model
50.7
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 54.4%
Expected possessions
11.77
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 61°F, 8.7 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Clemson and California moved the forecast −0.1 points.

Books 50.5–51.0
18
Thu, Sep 24, 7:30 PM EDT

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Core model
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 50.0
Core edge vs. consensus−1.9 pts
Final-total model
47.8
Consensus total
49.8
Model edge
−1.9
Regulation model
48.3
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 55.8%
Expected possessions
11.55
Weather adjustment
−1.5

Forecast applied. Light Rain, 66°F, 12.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −1.5 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Liberty and Coastal Carolina moved the forecast +0.9 points.

Books 49.5–50.0
19
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 60.5
Core edge vs. consensus−0.9 pts
Final-total model
59.6
Consensus total
60.5
Model edge
−0.9
Regulation model
60.6
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 52.3%
Expected possessions
11.64
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 60°F, 4.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Oklahoma State and West Virginia moved the forecast −0.5 points.

Books 60.5–60.5
20
Sat, Sep 26, 7:45 PM EDT

Missouri at Mississippi State

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 58.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.7 pts
Final-total model
56.8
Consensus total
58.5
Model edge
−1.7
Regulation model
57.2
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 54.6%
Expected possessions
11.57
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 84°F, 4.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Missouri and Mississippi State moved the forecast −0.1 points.

Books 58.5–58.5
21
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM EDT

Massachusetts at Sacramento State

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 48.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.0 pts
Final-total model
47.5
Consensus total
48.5
Model edge
−1.0
Regulation model
47.6
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 52.8%
Expected possessions
11.38
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 81°F, 7.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Massachusetts and Sacramento State moved the forecast +0.3 points.

Books 48.5–48.5
22
Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM EDT

Air Force at Nevada

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 49.5
Core edge vs. consensus−0.8 pts
Final-total model
48.8
Consensus total
49.5
Model edge
−0.8
Regulation model
48.5
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 52.0%
Expected possessions
10.66
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 67°F, 6.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Air Force and Nevada moved the forecast +0.1 points.

Books 49.5–49.5
23
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM EDT

UConn at Miami (OH)

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 51.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.3 pts
Final-total model
50.2
Consensus total
51.5
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
50.6
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 53.6%
Expected possessions
11.46
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 71°F, 6.0 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for UConn and Miami (OH) moved the forecast −0.0 points.

Books 51.5–51.5
24
Sat, Sep 26, 4:15 PM EDT

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Core model
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Core edge vs. consensus−1.6 pts
Final-total model
53.6
Consensus total
55.3
Model edge
−1.6
Regulation model
55.1
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(under) 55.0%
Expected possessions
11.15
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 82°F, 4.7 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Vanderbilt and Auburn moved the forecast −0.0 points.

Books 55.0–55.5
25
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · DraftKingsOver 55.5
Calibrated over probability52.4%
Final-total model
56.4
Consensus total
55.8
Model edge
+0.7
Regulation model
57.4
Arbitration check
Probability wins · P(over) 52.4%
Expected possessions
12.04
Weather adjustment
−0.1

Forecast applied. Fair, 81°F, 10.4 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total −0.1 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Sam Houston and Texas Tech moved the forecast +0.3 points.

Books 55.5–56.0
27
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

San Diego State at Toledo

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 51.5
Point fallback edge−0.7 pts
Final-total model
50.2
Consensus total
51.5
Model edge
−1.3
Regulation model
50.7
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(under) 53.4%
Expected possessions
11.65
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 66°F, 4.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for San Diego State and Toledo moved the forecast −0.1 points.

Books 51.5–51.5
28
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM EDT

Arizona at Washington State

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 48.5
Point fallback edge+0.7 pts
Final-total model
50.0
Consensus total
48.5
Model edge
+1.5
Regulation model
48.4
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(over) 54.0%
Expected possessions
11.40
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 59°F, 2.9 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Arizona and Washington State moved the forecast +0.1 points.

Books 48.5–48.5
29
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM EDT

South Florida at Bowling Green

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 49.0
Point fallback edge+0.7 pts
Final-total model
50.8
Consensus total
49.3
Model edge
+1.5
Regulation model
49.3
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(over) 54.8%
Expected possessions
11.82
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 67°F, 6.5 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for South Florida and Bowling Green moved the forecast +1.2 points.

Books 49.0–49.5
30
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

UNLV at Akron

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · DraftKingsOver 52.5
Point fallback edge+0.6 pts
Final-total model
54.0
Consensus total
52.8
Model edge
+1.3
Regulation model
52.2
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(over) 54.1%
Expected possessions
11.67
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 67°F, 9.4 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for UNLV and Akron moved the forecast +0.6 points.

Books 52.5–53.0
32
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM EDT

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 51.5
Point fallback edge−0.6 pts
Final-total model
50.4
Consensus total
51.5
Model edge
−1.1
Regulation model
50.4
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(under) 52.8%
Expected possessions
11.56
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 75°F, 4.0 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State moved the forecast +0.2 points.

Books 51.5–51.5
33
Sat, Sep 26, 10:00 PM EDT

Rice at Fresno State

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · BovadaOver 44.0
Point fallback edge+0.6 pts
Final-total model
45.8
Consensus total
44.3
Model edge
+1.6
Regulation model
44.0
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(over) 54.9%
Expected possessions
11.52
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 84°F, 4.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Rice and Fresno State moved the forecast +0.2 points.

Books 44.0–44.5
34
Sat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM EDT

Tulsa at Arkansas

Over addition
Recommendation · DraftKingsOver 50.5
Edge vs. saved consensus+1.4 pts
Final-total model
52.1
Consensus total
50.8
Model edge
+1.4
Regulation model
50.8
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 54.4%
Expected possessions
11.72
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 78°F, 7.1 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Tulsa and Arkansas moved the forecast +1.3 points. This over was selected by the frozen weekly pass-cohort policy; the probability model is shown only as a cross-check.

Books 50.5–51.0
35
Sat, Sep 26, 10:30 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Over addition
Recommendation · DraftKingsOver 47.5
Edge vs. saved consensus+0.7 pts
Final-total model
48.5
Consensus total
47.8
Model edge
+0.7
Regulation model
47.1
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 52.5%
Expected possessions
11.24
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 61°F, 7.4 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Georgia Tech and Stanford moved the forecast +0.7 points. This over was selected by the frozen weekly pass-cohort policy; the probability model is shown only as a cross-check.

Books 47.5–48.0
36
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM EDT

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 53.0
Point fallback edge−0.5 pts
Final-total model
51.8
Consensus total
52.8
Model edge
−1.0
Regulation model
53.1
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(under) 53.3%
Expected possessions
11.70
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 79°F, 7.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Kennesaw State and Arkansas State moved the forecast +0.5 points.

Books 52.5–53.0
38
Sat, Sep 26, 7:30 PM EDT

Troy at Utah State

Over addition
Recommendation · BovadaOver 47.0
Edge vs. saved consensus+1.4 pts
Final-total model
48.6
Consensus total
47.3
Model edge
+1.4
Regulation model
47.9
Probability cross-check
Supports · P(over) 54.3%
Expected possessions
11.89
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Fair, 77°F, 7.8 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Troy and Utah State moved the forecast +0.6 points. This over was selected by the frozen weekly pass-cohort policy; the probability model is shown only as a cross-check.

Books 47.0–47.5
39
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

Colorado at Baylor

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Point fallback edge−0.5 pts
Final-total model
55.0
Consensus total
55.5
Model edge
−0.6
Regulation model
55.5
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(under) 51.5%
Expected possessions
11.63
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 86°F, 7.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Colorado and Baylor moved the forecast +0.8 points.

Books 55.5–55.5
44
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM EDT

Texas at Tennessee

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Point fallback edge−0.4 pts
Final-total model
54.6
Consensus total
55.5
Model edge
−0.9
Regulation model
55.7
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(under) 52.3%
Expected possessions
11.57
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Cloudy, 65°F, 3.6 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Texas and Tennessee moved the forecast +0.9 points.

Books 55.5–55.5
47
Sat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM EDT

Kansas State at Cincinnati

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · DraftKingsUnder 55.5
Point fallback edge−0.2 pts
Final-total model
54.9
Consensus total
55.5
Model edge
−0.6
Regulation model
54.7
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(under) 51.5%
Expected possessions
11.23
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 65°F, 4.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Kansas State and Cincinnati moved the forecast +0.0 points.

Books 55.5–55.5
52
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM EDT

Boise State at Western Michigan

Arbitrated add
Recommendation · BovadaUnder 50.0
Point fallback edge−0.1 pts
Final-total model
49.4
Consensus total
49.8
Model edge
−0.4
Regulation model
49.4
Arbitration check
Point fallback · P(under) 51.7%
Expected possessions
11.47
Weather adjustment
0.0

Forecast applied. Clear, 68°F, 2.2 mph wind. Weather moves the predicted total 0.0 points. Current-season scoring evidence for Boise State and Western Michigan moved the forecast +0.2 points.

Books 49.5–50.0

Every prediction

The 58-game board.

Passing is a prediction too. The table retains every lined FBS–FBS game, including the 19 games where all three layers pass.

MatchupMarketModelSelection basisCall
Central Michiganat Miami54.055.6Edge +1.6Probability supportsOver 53.5Core model
South Alabamaat Kentucky54.553.2Edge −1.3Probability supportsUnder 54.5Core model
Virginia Techat Boston College47.543.3Edge −4.2Probability supportsUnder 47.5Core model
Colorado Stateat UTSA58.555.8Edge −2.7Probability supportsUnder 58.5Core model
App Stateat NC State55.354.2Edge −1.0Probability supportsUnder 55.5Core model
South Carolinaat Alabama53.852.7Edge −1.1Probability supportsUnder 54.0Core model
Hawai'iat Wyoming43.845.4Edge +1.7Probability supportsOver 43.5Core model
Navyat UAB51.348.7Edge −2.6Probability supportsUnder 51.5Core model
Ole Missat Florida59.357.2Edge −2.0Probability supportsUnder 59.5Core model
Notre Dameat Purdue58.356.7Edge −1.5Probability supportsUnder 58.5Core model
Illinoisat Ohio State53.852.4Edge −1.3Probability supportsUnder 54.0Core model
Armyat Temple48.346.0Edge −2.2Probability supportsUnder 48.5Core model
Oregonat USC62.359.8Edge −2.4Probability supportsUnder 62.5Core model
UCLAat Maryland56.855.3Edge −1.5Probability supportsUnder 57.0Core model
Wake Forestat Louisville56.854.7Edge −2.1Probability supportsUnder 57.0Core model
Nebraskaat Michigan State48.849.9Edge +1.1Probability supportsOver 48.5Core model
Clemsonat California50.852.2Edge +1.4Probability supportsOver 50.5Core model
Libertyat Coastal Carolina49.847.8Edge −1.9Probability supportsUnder 50.0Core model
Oklahoma Stateat West Virginia60.559.6Edge −0.9Probability supportsUnder 60.5Core model
Missouriat Mississippi State58.556.8Edge −1.7Probability supportsUnder 58.5Core model
Massachusettsat Sacramento State48.547.5Edge −1.0Probability supportsUnder 48.5Core model
Air Forceat Nevada49.548.8Edge −0.8Probability supportsUnder 49.5Core model
UConnat Miami (OH)51.550.2Edge −1.3Probability supportsUnder 51.5Core model
Vanderbiltat Auburn55.353.6Edge −1.6Probability supportsUnder 55.5Core model
Sam Houstonat Texas Tech55.856.4P(over) 52.4%Probability wins disagreementOver 55.5Arbitrated add
Louisianaat Charlotte48.848.6No gatePassPassPass
San Diego Stateat Toledo51.550.2Point edge −0.7Point fallbackUnder 51.5Arbitrated add
Arizonaat Washington State48.550.0Point edge +0.7Point fallbackOver 48.5Arbitrated add
South Floridaat Bowling Green49.350.8Point edge +0.7Point fallbackOver 49.0Arbitrated add
UNLVat Akron52.854.0Point edge +0.6Point fallbackOver 52.5Arbitrated add
Oklahomaat Georgia44.543.7No gatePassPassPass
Middle Tennesseeat Jacksonville State51.550.4Point edge −0.6Point fallbackUnder 51.5Arbitrated add
Riceat Fresno State44.345.8Point edge +0.6Point fallbackOver 44.0Arbitrated add
Tulsaat Arkansas50.852.1Edge +1.4Weekly over-additionOver 50.5Over addition
Georgia Techat Stanford47.848.5Edge +0.7Weekly over-additionOver 47.5Over addition
Kennesaw Stateat Arkansas State52.851.8Point edge −0.5Point fallbackUnder 53.0Arbitrated add
Houstonat Georgia Southern56.556.4No gatePassPassPass
Troyat Utah State47.348.6Edge +1.4Weekly over-additionOver 47.0Over addition
Coloradoat Baylor55.555.0Point edge −0.5Point fallbackUnder 55.5Arbitrated add
Utahat Iowa State47.847.6No gatePassPassPass
Texas A&Mat LSU51.851.2No gatePassPassPass
Southern Missat Tulane52.552.5No gatePassPassPass
Oregon Stateat UTEP56.355.9No gatePassPassPass
Texasat Tennessee55.554.6Point edge −0.4Point fallbackUnder 55.5Arbitrated add
Missouri Stateat SMU59.859.5No gatePassPassPass
Minnesotaat Washington45.846.1No gatePassPassPass
Kansas Stateat Cincinnati55.554.9Point edge −0.2Point fallbackUnder 55.5Arbitrated add
Northwesternat Indiana49.549.3No gatePassPassPass
Florida Atlanticat UL Monroe57.556.8No gatePassPassPass
Ball Stateat Kent State50.851.1No gatePassPassPass
Iowaat Michigan38.539.2No gatePassPassPass
Boise Stateat Western Michigan49.849.4Point edge −0.1Point fallbackUnder 50.0Arbitrated add
Northern Illinoisat Georgia State56.356.4No gatePassPassPass
Wisconsinat Penn State44.544.9No gatePassPassPass
Delawareat Virginia52.552.5No gatePassPassPass
James Madisonat Old Dominion44.544.6No gatePassPassPass
New Mexicoat New Mexico State48.548.4No gatePassPassPass
TCUat UCF48.548.8No gatePassPassPass

Read before betting

A prediction is not a price guarantee.

Totals can move quickly, and a half-point can change both the edge and the recommendation. This page reflects a saved market snapshot, assumes standard −110 pricing, and does not account for limits or availability. Available CFBD forecasts are treated as the realized game conditions and translated through the historical weather response. Forecasts can change, so recheck the named book, price and weather before acting. Over additions use the explicitly displayed saved consensus total.

See the current spread board