Model composite
The conference, in the aggregate
Big Ten
expectations board
Ninety reviewed perspectives. Four independent human voices and one model check per team. 14 live disagreements about who will beat—or miss—the market.
18teams
90reviewed perspectives
5perspectives per team
14active debates
The opening take
The Big Ten owns the moment.
Big Ten football fans, rejoice: Media Days return July 28–30 in Chicago, the unofficial kickoff to the final stretch of the long wait for the 2026 college football season.
The conference arrives with more than its usual size and ambition to boast about. Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana have won three consecutive national championships, each taking a different route to the top of the sport. Now the Big Ten is trying to extend a run of conference supremacy.
At the top, the argument is mostly about order. Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana occupy the first three spots in the market, model composite, media poll and pundit aggregate, even if the sequence changes. Ohio State owns the No. 1 model and pundit positions; CBS Sports projects all three to win at least 10 regular-season games.
Then consensus gives way to debate. Is Oregon an 11-win machine or a 10-win under? Does Michigan's coaching transition create a higher floor, or does its schedule win the argument? Can Purdue turn a rebuilt roster into four or five wins, or is three still the limit? Across the conference, 14 teams split credible voices between the bull and bear cases. The season ahead will decide who saw it clearly.
The disagreement map
Where the room splits
Original published positions are preserved even when the line has moved. Open a team to read the full cases, source links and podcast timestamps.
No bear found
Ohio State
9.5current wins
4 Bull0 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionOregon
10.5current wins
3 Bull1 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →No bull foundIndiana
10.5current wins
0 Bull4 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionMichigan
8.5current wins
2 Bull2 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionUSC
8.5current wins
3 Bull1 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionPenn State
8.5current wins
3 Bull1 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →No bear foundWashington
7.5current wins
4 Bull0 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionIowa
7.5current wins
2 Bull2 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionIllinois
7.5current wins
3 Bull1 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionNebraska
6.5current wins
3 Bull1 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →No bear foundMinnesota
6.5current wins
4 Bull0 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionWisconsin
6.5current wins
2 Bull2 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionUCLA
6.5current wins
1 Bull3 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionNorthwestern
5.5current wins
1 Bull3 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionMaryland
4.5current wins
3 Bull1 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionRutgers
4.5current wins
2 Bull2 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionMichigan State
4.5current wins
3 Bull1 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →Split decisionPurdue
3.5current wins
1 Bull3 Bear
4 human voices + 1 model check →All 18 teams
The expectations board
Sorted by the model composite power rating. Model, talent, pundit and media-poll ranks are within the Big Ten; schedule difficulty and experience are national ranks.
| Team | Power rating | Projected record | Schedule difficulty | Talent composite | Experience | Pundit aggregate | Media poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Ohio State | #1PFEI #1 · SP+ #1 · TR #1 | 8–1 B1G10–2 overall | #35.43 good-team losses | #1BCR 76% · 247 #2 | #31national | #1Steele #2 · CBS #1 · Media #1 | #1540 points |
| 02Oregon | #2PFEI #2 · SP+ #2 · TR #2 | 8–1 B1G11–1 overall | #264.36 good-team losses | #1BCR 69% · 247 #1 | #36national | #2Steele #1 · CBS #2 · Media #2 | #2527 points |
| 03Indiana | #3PFEI #5 · SP+ #5 · TR #4 | 7–2 B1G10–2 overall | #294.02 good-team losses | #13BCR 15% · 247 #16 | #8national | #3Steele #3 · CBS #3 · Media #3 | #3509 points |
| 04Michigan | #4PFEI #10 · SP+ #14 · TR #15 | 6–3 B1G8–4 overall | #55.38 good-team losses | #3BCR 54% · 247 #4 | #69national | #5Steele #5 · CBS #5 · Media #5 | #5430 points |
| 05USC | #5PFEI #17 · SP+ #13 · TR #14 | 6–3 B1G9–3 overall | #184.90 good-team losses | #3BCR 53% · 247 #3 | #58national | #4Steele #4 · CBS #4 · Media #4 | #4446 points |
| 06Penn State | #6PFEI #11 · SP+ #17 · TR #19 | 6–3 B1G9–3 overall | #513.10 good-team losses | #5BCR 31% · 247 #5 | #17national | #6Steele #7 · CBS #6 · Media #6 | #6380 points |
| 07Washington | #7PFEI #18 · SP+ #21 · TR #18 | 6–3 B1G9–3 overall | #234.69 good-team losses | #7BCR 26% · 247 #7 | #32national | #7Steele #6 · CBS #7 · Media #7 | #7366 points |
| 08Iowa | #8PFEI #19 · SP+ #22 · TR #23 | 6–3 B1G9–3 overall | #274.13 good-team losses | #9BCR 19% · 247 #10 | #110national | #8Steele #8 · CBS #8 · Media #8 | #8361 points |
| 09Illinois | #9PFEI #25 · SP+ #33 · TR #33 | 5–4 B1G8–4 overall | #373.72 good-team losses | #16BCR 9% · 247 #15 | #39national | #9Steele #13 · CBS #9 · Media #9 | #9304 points |
| 10Nebraska | #10PFEI #44 · SP+ #37 · TR #43 | 3–6 B1G6–6 overall | #194.87 good-team losses | #6BCR 28% · 247 #6 | #14national | #10Steele #11 · CBS #10 · Media #11 | #11246 points |
| 11Minnesota | #11PFEI #51 · SP+ #45 · TR #42 | 4–5 B1G6–6 overall | #254.41 good-team losses | #9BCR 16% · 247 #9 | #44national | #11Steele #12 · CBS #11 · Media #10 | #10268 points |
| 12Wisconsin | #12PFEI #41 · SP+ #61 · TR #39 | 5–4 B1G7–5 overall | #363.77 good-team losses | #8BCR 16% · 247 #8 | #74national | #12Steele #9 · CBS #15 · Media #12 | #12207 points |
| 13UCLA | #13PFEI #60 · SP+ #46 · TR #40 | 5–4 B1G7–5 overall | #343.83 good-team losses | #15BCR 5% · 247 #13 | #6national | #12Steele #10 · CBS #13 · Media #13 | #13199 points |
| 14Northwestern | #14PFEI #58 · SP+ #49 · TR #51 | 1–8 B1G4–8 overall | #155.03 good-team losses | #17BCR 5% · 247 #18 | #47national | #14Steele #16 · CBS #12 · Media #14 | #14140 points |
| 15Maryland | #15PFEI #59 · SP+ #55 · TR #57 | 1–8 B1G3–9 overall | #353.78 good-team losses | #11BCR 10% · 247 #10 | #27national | #15Steele #14 · CBS #14 · Media #15 | #15137 points |
| 16Rutgers | #16PFEI #67 · SP+ #62 · TR #64 | 1–8 B1G4–8 overall | #303.93 good-team losses | #13BCR 10% · 247 #14 | #65national | #16Steele #15 · CBS #16 · Media #17 | #1797 points |
| 17Michigan State | #17PFEI #68 · SP+ #67 · TR #68 | 1–8 B1G3–9 overall | #224.77 good-team losses | #12BCR 11% · 247 #12 | #43national | #17Steele #17 · CBS #17 · Media #16 | #1699 points |
| 18Purdue | #18PFEI #76 · SP+ #82 · TR #78 | 1–8 B1G3–9 overall | #105.14 good-team losses | #18BCR 1% · 247 #17 | #54national | #18Steele #18 · CBS #18 · Media #18 | #1845 points |
Essentials viewExpand a team to reveal every signal
01Ohio StatePower#1compositeProjected8–1 B1G10–2 overallSchedule#3GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#1BCR 76% · 247 #2
Experience#31national rank
Pundit aggregate#1Steele #2 · CBS #1 · Media #1
Media poll#1540 points
Read the Ohio State narrative 02OregonPower#2compositeProjected8–1 B1G11–1 overallSchedule#26GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#1BCR 69% · 247 #1
Experience#36national rank
Pundit aggregate#2Steele #1 · CBS #2 · Media #2
Media poll#2527 points
Read the Oregon narrative 03IndianaPower#3compositeProjected7–2 B1G10–2 overallSchedule#29GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#13BCR 15% · 247 #16
Experience#8national rank
Pundit aggregate#3Steele #3 · CBS #3 · Media #3
Media poll#3509 points
Read the Indiana narrative 04MichiganPower#4compositeProjected6–3 B1G8–4 overallSchedule#5GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#3BCR 54% · 247 #4
Experience#69national rank
Pundit aggregate#5Steele #5 · CBS #5 · Media #5
Media poll#5430 points
Read the Michigan narrative 05USCPower#5compositeProjected6–3 B1G9–3 overallSchedule#18GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#3BCR 53% · 247 #3
Experience#58national rank
Pundit aggregate#4Steele #4 · CBS #4 · Media #4
Media poll#4446 points
Read the USC narrative 06Penn StatePower#6compositeProjected6–3 B1G9–3 overallSchedule#51GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#5BCR 31% · 247 #5
Experience#17national rank
Pundit aggregate#6Steele #7 · CBS #6 · Media #6
Media poll#6380 points
Read the Penn State narrative 07WashingtonPower#7compositeProjected6–3 B1G9–3 overallSchedule#23GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#7BCR 26% · 247 #7
Experience#32national rank
Pundit aggregate#7Steele #6 · CBS #7 · Media #7
Media poll#7366 points
Read the Washington narrative 08IowaPower#8compositeProjected6–3 B1G9–3 overallSchedule#27GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#9BCR 19% · 247 #10
Experience#110national rank
Pundit aggregate#8Steele #8 · CBS #8 · Media #8
Media poll#8361 points
Read the Iowa narrative 09IllinoisPower#9compositeProjected5–4 B1G8–4 overallSchedule#37GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#16BCR 9% · 247 #15
Experience#39national rank
Pundit aggregate#9Steele #13 · CBS #9 · Media #9
Media poll#9304 points
Read the Illinois narrative 10NebraskaPower#10compositeProjected3–6 B1G6–6 overallSchedule#19GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#6BCR 28% · 247 #6
Experience#14national rank
Pundit aggregate#10Steele #11 · CBS #10 · Media #11
Media poll#11246 points
Read the Nebraska narrative 11MinnesotaPower#11compositeProjected4–5 B1G6–6 overallSchedule#25GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#9BCR 16% · 247 #9
Experience#44national rank
Pundit aggregate#11Steele #12 · CBS #11 · Media #10
Media poll#10268 points
Read the Minnesota narrative 12WisconsinPower#12compositeProjected5–4 B1G7–5 overallSchedule#36GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#8BCR 16% · 247 #8
Experience#74national rank
Pundit aggregate#12Steele #9 · CBS #15 · Media #12
Media poll#12207 points
Read the Wisconsin narrative 13UCLAPower#13compositeProjected5–4 B1G7–5 overallSchedule#34GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#15BCR 5% · 247 #13
Experience#6national rank
Pundit aggregate#12Steele #10 · CBS #13 · Media #13
Media poll#13199 points
Read the UCLA narrative 14NorthwesternPower#14compositeProjected1–8 B1G4–8 overallSchedule#15GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#17BCR 5% · 247 #18
Experience#47national rank
Pundit aggregate#14Steele #16 · CBS #12 · Media #14
Media poll#14140 points
Read the Northwestern narrative 15MarylandPower#15compositeProjected1–8 B1G3–9 overallSchedule#35GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#11BCR 10% · 247 #10
Experience#27national rank
Pundit aggregate#15Steele #14 · CBS #14 · Media #15
Media poll#15137 points
Read the Maryland narrative 16RutgersPower#16compositeProjected1–8 B1G4–8 overallSchedule#30GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#13BCR 10% · 247 #14
Experience#65national rank
Pundit aggregate#16Steele #15 · CBS #16 · Media #17
Media poll#1797 points
Read the Rutgers narrative 17Michigan StatePower#17compositeProjected1–8 B1G3–9 overallSchedule#22GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#12BCR 11% · 247 #12
Experience#43national rank
Pundit aggregate#17Steele #17 · CBS #17 · Media #16
Media poll#1699 points
Read the Michigan State narrative 18PurduePower#18compositeProjected1–8 B1G3–9 overallSchedule#10GLS nationalView detailsHide details
Talent composite#18BCR 1% · 247 #17
Experience#54national rank
Pundit aggregate#18Steele #18 · CBS #18 · Media #18
Media poll#1845 points
Read the Purdue narrative How to read it
Comparable signals, distinct ideas.
The board is ordered by the model composite, which equally averages the national ranks from PFEI, ESPN SP+ and TeamRankings, then re-ranks the Big Ten. Projected records are CBS Sports' game-by-game picks: conference record first, full 12-game regular-season record second.
Schedule difficulty is PFEI's good-team schedule measure (GLS): the expected losses for a good FBS team against that schedule, ranked nationally with No. 1 toughest. The 247 index equally weights the 2023–26 recruiting classes and the 2025 transfer class. Talent composite then gives equal weight to that index and the current roster’s blue-chip ratio. Experience remains separate. The pundit aggregate equally weights each source’s Big Ten rank from Phil Steele, CBS Sports and the conference media poll.
Three bottom lines
Who leads each view
Media poll
Ohio State
540 points2026 Cleveland.com Big Ten preseason pollTalent composite